1. Kwenzeka ntoni ngoku?
Liveki yokuqala kaJanuwari 2026. Ihlabathi lokuthenga izinyithi litshintshe ngokupheleleyo. Oku singakubiza ngokuba yi "Resource Iron Curtain."
Kwiminyaka engamashumi amabini edlulileyo, besinokuthenga izinyithi ezifana neTungsten okanye iCobalt naphi na. Elo xesha liphelile. Ngoku, sineemarike ezimbini ezahlukeneyo. Enye imakethi iseTshayina, enye iseNtshona. Zinexabiso ezahlukeneyo kunye nemithetho eyahlukeneyo.
Nantsi into eboniswa luphando kule veki:
●I-Tungsten:Ixabiso liya lisanda kakhulu. I-China ilawula malunga ne-82% yonikezelo. Banciphisa nje isixa abaza kusithengisela ihlabathi. Kwangaxeshanye, i-United States yaqala ukuhlawulisa irhafu ye-25% (irhafu) kwi-tungsten yaseTshayina ngomhla woku-1 kweyoMqungu.
●I-Cobalt:Imeko eCongo (DRC) iyadida kodwa ibalulekile. Babeke umda wokuba baza kuthumela malini kwamanye amazwe. Bawongeze kancinci umhla wokugqibela ukuze bancede iilori zidlule kumda, kodwa isixa siphela esivunyelweyo ngo-2026 sisephantsi kakhulu. Amaxabiso anyuka ngenxa yoku.
●Intsimbi Ekhawulezayo (i-HSS):Le yintsimbi esetyenziselwa ukwenza izixhobo zokusika. Ngenxa yokuba izithako (iTungsten kunye neCobalt) zibiza kakhulu, amaxabiso entsimbi ayanyuka. Kodwa iifektri eTshayina ziyaxakeka kwakhona, ngoko ke zithenga intsimbi engakumbi. Oku kuxhasa amaxabiso aphezulu.
2. I-Tungsten: Ibali leeMarike ezimbini
Ndijonge kakhulu imakethi yeTungsten kule veki. Mhlawumbi yeyona ntsimbi ibalulekileyo yokwenza izixhobo eziqinileyo.
Icala laseTshayina
I-China ikhuphe uluhlu lwayo olutsha lweenkampani ezivunyelwe ukuthumela iTungsten ngaphandle ngoJanuwari 2. Uluhlu lufutshane. Ziinkampani ezili-15 kuphela ezinokuyithengisa kwamanye amazwe.1
Ndijonge amaxabiso eTshayina. Itoni ye "Black Tungsten Concentrate" ngoku ixabisa ngaphezulu kwe-356,000 RMB.2Oku kuphezulu kakhulu. Kutheni kubiza kangaka? Ndifumanise ukuba abahloli bendalo batyelela imigodi kwiphondo laseJiangxi. Banyanzela imigodi ukuba ivalwe ukuze ilungiswe. Ngoko ke, akukho matye maninzi aphuma emhlabeni.
Icala laseNtshona
EYurophu naseMelika, abathengi bayoyika. Ixabiso le-APT (uhlobo lwe-tungsten) eRotterdam lifikelele kwi-$850 ukuya kwi-$1,000.3Oku kuphezulu kakhulu kunaseTshayina.
Kutheni kukho umahluko? Kungenxa yerhafu entsha yaseMelika. NgoSuku loNyaka oMtsha, urhulumente waseMelika waqalisa irhafu ye-25% kwi-tungsten yaseTshayina.4Iinkampani zaseMelika zizama ukuthenga kwamanye amazwe afana neVietnam okanye iBrazil. Kodwa akukho mveliso yaneleyo apho. Ngoko ke, kufuneka bahlawule iprimiyamu enkulu.
3. I-Cobalt: Ukunqongophala koBuqu
I-Cobalt ibalulekile ekwenzeni izixhobo ezisebenza kakuhle (njengentsimbi ye-M35). Imarike ye-Cobalt iphambene okwangoku.
Intshukumo Enkulu YaseCongo
Uninzi lweCobalt yehlabathi luvela kwiDemocratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Urhulumente apho ufuna imali engaphezulu. Ngoko ke, babeke umqathango. Bathe baza kuthumela ngaphandle iitoni ezingama-96,600 kuphela ngo-2026.5
Nantsi ingxaki. Ihlabathi lifuna okungaphezulu koko. Ubalo olufutshane lubonisa ukuba kufuneka ubuncinane iitoni ezili-100,000.
Uncedo "lobuxoki"
Ungabona iindaba zokuba iCongo yolule umhla wayo wokugqibela ukuya kuMatshi 2026. Lumka ngale ndaba. Bakwenze oku kuba iilori ezininzi kakhulu zazibambeke emdeni.6Basusa nje ingxinano yezithuthi. Umda wonyaka wonke ka-2026 awukatshintshi.
Ngenxa yalo mda, ixabiso leCobalt kwiLondon Metal Exchange (LME) linyuke ngaphezulu kwe-$53,000 kule veki.7
4. Intsimbi Ekhawulezayo: Ngubani Ohlawula Ibhili?
Oku kuyichaphazela njani imizi-mveliso eyenza izixhobo zokubhola kunye nezicuthi zokugaya?
Iindleko ze-Alloys
Ukusuka kuluhlu lwamaxabiso abenzi bentsimbi abakhulu baseYurophu abanjengo-Erasteel, bahlawulisa umrhumo owongezelelweyo obizwa ngokuba yi-"alloy surcharge." NgoJanuwari 2026, le ntlawulo imalunga ne-1,919 yee-Euro ngetoni.8Yehle kancinci ngoDisemba, kodwa isephezulu kakhulu ngokwembali.
Ukuba uthenga intsimbi ye-M35 (eneCobalt kuyo), uza kuhlawula ngaphezulu kakhulu kunentsimbi ye-M2 eqhelekileyo. Umsantsa phakathi kwala maxabiso mabini uya usanda.
Imfuno Ibuya
Amaxabiso aphezulu, kodwa ngaba abantu bayathenga? Ewe.
Idatha "ye-PMI" kaDisemba ngamanqaku asixelela ukuba iifektri zixakekile na. Amanqaku eTshayina ayengama-50.1.10Naliphi na inqaku elingaphezulu kwama-50 lithetha ukukhula. Eli lixesha lokuqala kwiinyanga ezimbalwa ukuba libe lihle. Oku kuthetha ukuba iifektri ziyasebenza, kwaye zifuna izixhobo.
5. Sifanele senze ntoni? (Ingcebiso yeqhinga)
Ngokusekelwe kulo lonke olu phando, nazi iingcebiso ezimbalwa kwiinyanga ezimbalwa ezizayo.
1. Musa Ukulinda Amaxabiso Ehle.
Amaxabiso aphezulu ayikokunyuka kwexeshana. Abangelwa yimithetho karhulumente (ii-quotas kunye neerhafu). Le mithetho ayizukuphela kungekudala. Ukuba ufuna izinto ze-Q2, zithenge ngoku.
2. Bukela "Ukusasazeka".
Ukuba ungathenga izixhobo ezenziwe kumazwe angachaphazelekiyo ziirhafu zase-US, unokonga imali. Kodwa lumka. Ubonelelo kwezo zizwe luphantsi kakhulu.
3. Phinda usebenzise yonke into.
Isinyithi esilahliweyo ngoku sifana negolide. Iibhithi ezindala zokubhola ziqulethe i-tungsten kunye ne-cobalt. Ukuba uqhuba umzi-mveliso, musa ukuzilahla. Zithengise okanye uzirhwebe. Ixabiso le-tungsten esilahliweyo linyuke nge-160% kunyaka ophelileyo.11
Kwabangenisi bezixhobo kwamanye amazwe, abathengisi ngobuninzi, kunye nabasasazi:
Utshintsho lwemarike ekuqaleni kuka-2026 luzisa imingeni ebonakalayo, kungekuphela nje amaxabiso aphezulu. Oko Ufanele Ukuqwalasele:
1. Uzinzo lweendleko lubaluleke ngaphezu kwamaxabiso aqhelekileyo
Kwimeko yangoku, ukusukelana nokuhla kwamaxabiso okwethutyana kuzisa umngcipheko omkhulu. Utshintsho oluqhubekayo kwimigaqo-nkqubo, ulawulo lokuthumela ngaphandle, kunye nezabelo zezinto eziluhlaza kuthetha ukuba amaxabiso anokunyuka ngequbuliso nangokungalindelekiyo.
Iqabane elizinzileyo lokubonelela ngeenkonzo elinengqiqo ecacileyo yamaxabiso liya lisiba luncedo ngakumbi kunexabiso eliphantsi.
2. Ixesha kunye nemvelaphi ngoku zizinto ezibalulekileyo
Ilizwe elivela kulo, amandla okuvelisa, kunye neendlela zokufumana izinto zichaphazela ngokuthe ngqo ukuthembeka kokuhanjiswa.
Eminye imimandla engeyiyo irhafu inokubonelela ngeenzuzo zeendleko zexesha elifutshane, kodwa amandla alinganiselweyo kunye nobonelelo olungazinzanga kunokunciphisa ngokukhawuleza ezo zibonelelo.
3. Ucwangciso lwempahla lufuna ixesha elide
Icebo lendabuko elithi “thenga xa amaxabiso ehla” alisebenzi kakuhle. Abathengi bayakhuthazwa ukuba bacebe ukuthenga ubuncinane ikota enye ngaphambi kwexesha kwaye baqinisekise ii-SKU ezibalulekileyo kwangethuba, ingakumbi kwizixhobo zokusika ezisekelwe kwi-cobalt nakwi-tungsten.
Uxanduva Lwethu Njengomvelisi:
Njengomvelisi wezixhobo kunye nomthengisi wexesha elide, sikholelwa ukuba indima yethu ayikokukhulisa uloyiko lwemarike, kodwa kukunceda amaqabane ethu ukuba ahambe ngendlela yokungaqiniseki ngolwazi olucacileyo kunye nocwangciso olusebenzayo.
Ingqwalasela yethu kwiinyanga ezizayo iza kuba yile:
●Ukugcina iishedyuli zemveliso zizinzile nangona izinto eziluhlaza zingaguquguquki
● Ukuphucula ukusetyenziswa kwezinto, kuquka ukuphinda kusetyenziswe izinto ezintsha kunye nolawulo lokuvelisa imveliso
● Ukunxibelelana kwangethuba nabathengi malunga noxinzelelo lweendleko kunye notshintsho lwexesha lokuhlawula
●Ukuphepha amaxabiso aqikelelweyo, endaweni yoko unike iikowuteshini ezicacileyo nezisekelwe kwidatha
Siyaqonda ukuba abathengi bethu nabo baphantsi koxinzelelo oluvela kwiimarike zabo. Intsebenziswano ezinzileyo, kule meko, ixhomekeke ekuthembekeni, ekuhleni, nasekuqondeni umngcipheko okwabelwana ngawo, kungekhona kukhuphiswano lwamaxabiso lwexesha elifutshane.
6. Isishwankathelo: Indlela Eqhelekileyo Entsha Yoshishino Lwezixhobo
Imarike itshintshile. Ayisekho nje kuphela malunga nokubonelela ngempahla kunye nemfuno, kodwa ibandakanyeka ngakumbi kwezopolitiko kunye nemida. Umkhusane wesinyithi wezixhobo uye wehla, nto leyo eyenza yonke into ibize kakhulu. UJanuwari 2026 uza kukhunjulwa njengomzuzu obalulekileyo kwimarike yezimbiwa ezibalulekileyo. Le nyanga ibone ukuqhekeka kweengcamango zorhwebo olukhululekileyo ngokuchasene neenyani ezinzima zezopolitiko, inika indlela kwihlabathi elitsha elichazwe yimiqobo, ii-quota, kunye nolawulo olucwangcisiweyo. Kuwo wonke umntu othatha inxaxheba kwikhonkco lemizi-mveliso, ukuziqhelanisa nale ndlela intsha "yeendleko eziphezulu, ukuguquguquka okuphezulu, kunye nolawulo olungqongqo" akubalulekanga nje kuphela ekusindeni kodwa kukwabalulekile ekufumaneni inzuzo yokhuphiswano kwiminyaka elishumi ezayo.
Imakethi yezixhobo zokusika ingena kwinqanaba apho i-geopolitics, i-regulation, kunye nokhuseleko lwezixhobo zibaluleke kakhulu njengobuchule bokuvelisa.
Kubathengi nakubaboneleli, umbuzo ophambili awusekho
"Ndingayithenga ngexabiso eliphantsi kangakanani?"
kodwa
"Ndingayifumana njani i-oda ngokuthembekileyo kwiinyanga ezili-12-24 ezizayo?"
Abo baziqhelanisa kwangethuba nale nyaniso intsha baya kuba kwimeko engcono xa ukuguquguquka kuba yinto eqhelekileyo kunokuba kube yinto engaqhelekanga.
Isikhanyeli: Le ngxelo iqulunqwe ngokusekelwe kulwazi lwemarike olufumaneka esidlangalaleni, iindaba zoshishino, kunye neziqwenga zedatha ukusukela nge-4 kaJanuwari 2026. Kukho iingozi zemarike; utyalo-mali lufuna unonophelo.
Imisebenzi ekhankanyiweyo
1. I-China ibiza iinkampani ezivunyelwe ukuthumela ngaphandle izinyithi ezibalulekileyo ngo-2026-2027 - Investing.com, ifikelelwe ngoJanuwari 4, 2026,https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/china-names-companies-allowed-to-export-critical-metals-in-20262027-93CH-4425149
2. Amaxabiso eTungsten ayaqhubeka nokunyuka njengoko abavelisi abakhulu benyusa amaxabiso esivumelwano sexesha elide, nto leyo ebonakalisa ukunyuka okumangalisayo kwe-150% kulo nyaka [Ingxelo yeSMM] - IShanghai Metal Market, ifikelelwe ngoJanuwari 4, 2026,https://www.metal.com/en/newscontent/103664822
3. Amaxabiso eTungsten aseYurophu Aphezulu kwiNzuzo yaseTshayina, iMpahla yoMveliso ngaphambi kweeHolide isongela ukunyuka okungaphezulu [Uhlalutyo lweSMM] - iShanghai Metal Market, efikelelwe ngoJanuwari 4, 2026,https://www.metal.com/en/newscontent/103669348
4. I-United States igqibezela iCandelo 301 lokunyuswa kweerhafu kwiimpahla ezingeniswayo ezivela eTshayina, kufinyelelwe ngoJanuwari 4, 2026,https://www.whitecase.com/insight-alert/united-states-finalizes-section-301-tariff-increases-imports-china
5. I-DRC izakutshintsha isithintelo sokuthumela ngaphandle i-cobalt ngezabelo - Iprojekthi iBlue, ifikelelwe ngoDisemba 27, 2025,https://projectblue.com/blue/news-analysis/1319/drc-to-replace-cobalt-export-ban-with-quotas
6. I-DRC igqibe ekubeni yandise isabelo sokuthumela ngaphandle i-cobalt sika-2025 siye kwi-Q1 ka-2026., esifikelelwe ngoJanuwari 4, 2026,https://www.metal.com/en/newscontent/103701184
7.Cobalt - Ixabiso - Itshathi - Idatha yeMbali - Iindaba - Uqoqosho loRhwebo, lufikelelwe ngoJanuwari 4, 2026,https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/cobalt
8. Intlawulo eyongezelelweyo ye-alloy | Legierungszuschlag.info, ifikelelwe ngoJanuwari 4, 2026,https://legierungszuschlag.info/en/
Ixabiso lesitokhwe se-9.Tiangong International Co Ltd Namhlanje | HK: 0826 Live - Investing.com, ifikelelwe ngoJanuwari 4, 2026,https://www.investing.com/equities/tiangong-international-co-ltd
10. Ukwenziwa kwee-rebounds ngoDisemba, kufikelelwe ngoJanuwari 4, 2026,https://www.ecns.cn/news/economy/2026-01-02/detail-iheymvap1611554.shtml
11. Amaxabiso eTungsten Concentrate anyuke nge-7% ngosuku olunye – nge-16 kaDisemba 2025, ifikelelwe nge-27 kaDisemba 2025,https://www.ctia.com.cn/en/news/46639.html
Ixesha lokuthumela: Jan-05-2026